Africa trends
South Africa is a popular tourist destination, with around 860 000 arrivals per month (March 2008) of which around 210 000 is from outside the African continent. Revenue equalling between 1% and 3% of GDP is generated by the tourism industry. Among the main attractions are the diverse and picturesque culture, the game reserves and the highly regarded local wines
Rank  | Country | International tourist arrivals |
1 | 12.2 million | |
2 | 9.5 million | |
3 | 7.9 million | |
4 | 7.0 million | |
5 | 2.1 million | |
The total number of travelers who visited South Africa through all its ports of entry during October 2009 lifted 4.6% year-on-year (y/y) to 2.375 million from the 10.4% y/y increase in September. Travelers through the ports were made up of 722,616 South African residents and 1,652,673 foreign travelers.
In October 2009, a high proportion of overseas tourists arrived in the country by air 164,663 (86.7%) compared with those who came in by road 24,264 (12.8%). This is in contrast to tourists from SADC countries who came into South Africa predominantly by road 395,247 (93,1%) compared with 29,102 (6.9%) coming by air. A relatively high proportion 12,217 (85.3%) of tourists from 'other' African countries flew into the country but 2,066 (14.4%) used road transport.
In October 2009, overseas tourists came mainly from Europe, 130,232 (68.6%); followed by North America, 24,076 (12.7%); Asia, 18,450 (9.7%); Australasia, 8,366 (4.4%); Central and South America, 5,886 (3.1%); and Middle East, 2,922 (1.5%). Virtually all tourists from Africa came from the SADC countries, 424,428 (96.7%).
Africa tourist arrival October 2009 | |
Europe | 130,232 |
North America | 24,076 |
Asia | 18,450 |
Australasia | 8,366 |
Central and South America, | 5,886 |
Middle East | 2,922 |
The UK, 40,829 (21.5%); Germany, 23,300 (12.3%); USA, 19,536 (10.3%); The Netherlands, 15,612 (8.2%); France, 11,834 (6.2%); Australia, 7,029 (3.7%); India, 5,047 (2.7%); and Belgium, 4,809 (2.5%) were the eight leading overseas source countries. Tourists from these eight countries constitute 67.4% of all tourists from overseas countries.
An overwhelming majority (97.1%) of tourists were in South Africa for holidays. This is a large difference compared with those who have come to study (1.2%) and those on business (1.6%).
A detailed analysis by Stats SA reveals that all the overseas regions had at least 92.0% of their tourists coming to South Africa for holidays. Tourists from Australasia (97.9%), Europe (97.7%), North America (97.5%), Central and South America (96.7%), Middle East (92.6%), and Asia (92.0%) were in South Africa for holidays.
The basic trends of Africa and global tourism are
It has been identifying that the major economic, political, social, environmental, and technological forces driving Africa and global tourism changes.
World Tourism Organisation Tourism Forecasts to 2020 International tourism will continue to boom in the 21st century increasing to almost 1.6 billion in 2020 This is 2.5 times the volume recorded in the late 1990s Annual average growth rate in international tourist arrivals is 4.1 per cent a year well above the maximum probable expansion of around 3 per cent per year in the world’s wealth
Emerging Destinations and Origins:
Emerging Destinations and Origins Principal new international destinations include China, Vietnam and Mekong River countries the Middle East, North Africa, Eastern Europe and Latin America Emerging Origin markets include the new economic powerhouses of Asia (China, Korea, Taiwan, India and Malaysia) and from large population countries - Indonesia, Brazil, Argentina, Mexico, and, to some extent, the Eastern European countries
Global Trends Affecting Tourism:
We identify 5 key global trends
1. Globalization and long term economic trends
2. Political trends
3. Social trends
4. Environment,
5. Resources and Energy Trends Changes in Technology
INFLUENCE OF MEGATRENDS ON TOURISM:
Globalization and Long term Economic Trends:
Globalization and Long term Economic Trends Six factors that drive globalization, economic dynamism and growth political pressures for higher living standards improved macroeconomic policies deregulation/liberalisation of international trade rising trade and investment diffusion of information technology increasingly dynamic private sectors
Growing World Economy:
Growing World Economy rising income is the most powerful generator of tourism flows continued growth of national economies will generate increased outbound tourism and, to a lesser extent, domestic tourism Economic growth and greater spending power, and with greater available leisure time, will give greater numbers of people the opportunity to travel
Political Trends: Political Trends the gap between the “haves” and “have-nots” will widen unless the “have-not” countries pursue policies that support application of new technologies good governance universal education market reforms
Some Political Influences:
Some Political Influences Destinations that are perceived to be less safe and secure will be avoided by tourists Enclave tourism strategies need to be re-examined (risk management) Globalisation Vs Localisation Modernity Vs Identity
Environment, Resources, Energy Trends:
Environment, Resources, Energy Trends climate change higher temperatures ozone depletion sea level rise loss of snow cover and permafrost glacial melt in the polar regions extreme weather events, precipitation and hydrological changes natural resource depletion (energy, water) land-use changes (deforestation and desertification, salinity) changes in biodiversity (species loss). These are affecting tourism
Some Environmental Influences on Tourism:
Some Environmental Influences on Tourism both contributes to and is affected by climate change natural environments and climate will influence which destinations will be preferred by tourists climate change impacts on the profitability of the industry through increasing temperatures, energy and water use and increasing needs for adaptation Government policies will affect operator costs Long haul destinations particularly affected Diminishing supplies of energy will impact on fuel costs, affecting transport costs and tourism flows
There are some another trends also affect tourism
Social Trends ● Population and Ageing ● Urbanisation ● Changing Social Structures ● Health ● Aspirations and Expectations ● Values and Lifestyles ● Changing Work Patterns ● Gender ● Education
Social Influences on Tourism:
Social Influences on Tourism Money rich-time poor. Leisure time has become an increasingly scarce commodity Individualism. Tourist behaviour is becoming driven by a desire for customisation (Pampering/hedonism) Self improvement. As more material needs are satisfied tourists seek newer, richer, deeper, authentic experiences seeking value for money. The internet has lead to more knowledgeable consumers who seek best value for money and time
Social Influences on Tourism:
Social Influences on Tourism Experimental. New tourists are extremely experimental, willing to try new products, foods and attractions, but too impatient to give a second chance to products or service that fail to satisfy initially Safety conscious. Safety issues are becoming increasingly important Social and Environmental Concern. Tourists are becoming more aware of political, social and environmental issues for different destinations (tipping points) Good service. the tourist marketing battle is shifting from competitive pricing to service improvement
Technological Change:
Technological Change Two areas of change: IT and Transport Technology is the foremost management tool for successful performance and competitive advantage in the new business operating environment
Technological Influences:
Technological Influences database management systems allow response to individual preferences to stimulate tourism New technologies give tourists more control over how they spend their time and money New technology is improving the speed and comfort and reducing the real cost of travel all aspects of tourism and hospitality organizations in all sectors are being dramatically changed by new technology BUT - - the tourism industry generally has not taken an active role in developing or adapting new technology Despite the proliferation of new technology, the industry is often reluctant to adopt new methods and tools
Americas
USA
The US outbound travel market has fallen short of expectations for many years. While it remains an important source of international visitors and expenditure by virtue of the size of its population (it is ranked among the top three in the world ranking of both categories), it is worth remembering that the majority of Americans have still never travelled abroad. With regard to the impact of the current recession and financial crisis, the US outbound market started falling in June 2008 and, has had a very bumpy ride since then, with monthly declines reaching as low as 12% in March 2009 (due in part to the Easter effect). However, outbound trip volume finally appears to have stabilised in the last couple of months, recording a modest 1% increase in July and, according to preliminary estimates, a similar rise in August.
The same cannot be said of US expenditure on outbound travel, however. Admittedly, the negative trend started much later, in January 2009, and after reaching what appears to have been a low in May this year (-18%), has shown an improvement on a month-by-month basis. But spending was still 13% down for 2009 overall through the month of August.
Moreover, current forecasts from the Office of Travel & Tourism Industries (OTTI) and Tourism Economics suggest that there will be no real recovery in the remainder of 2009, and outbound travel demand, although improving, will be flat at best next year. This is attributed to the facts that the labour market is weak and that there has been a huge loss of wealth through the crisis: confidence levels remain low as a result.
One positive factor is the impact of the Western Hemisphere Travel Initiative (WHTI), which has forced widespread passport adoption, which will hopefully stimulate travel abroad as confidence returns to the market.
Trends for the first seven months of this year show that short-haul destinations have suffered the most from the downturn in US outbound air travel, with Mexico at -14% and Canada at -10%. (It should be noted, however, that the comparisons shown here are for air travel only, and both destinations attract far more US visitors by surface transport.) By comparison, Europe, which accounts for 31% of all air trips, was down 7% – slightly more than the Caribbean, but less than the fall in demand for Asia (-8%). Central and South America were more or less unchanged over January to July 2008 and the only destinations to record an increase over the period were the Middle East (+41%) and Africa (+34%), clearly from low bases.
Canada
Although total outbound travel from Canada was down 5% in terms of trip volume in the first eight months of 2009, this was largely due to an 8% decline in demand for the USA. Overseas trips increased by 2% over the period, thereby maintaining the market's unbroken growth record over the past six years for long haul destinations. A closer look at the figures shows that long-haul travel increased by 5% in Q1 but has since been more or less flat, with the result that the Canadian Tourism Commission (CTC) is now forecasting only 1% growth by the end of the year.
Meanwhile, the decline in trips to the USA is easing (as the US currency depreciates again), so total trip volume should end 2009 down 3.5%, and current forecasts point to 2.5% growth in 2010.
Nevertheless, the market is not considered to be entirely out of the woods yet as unemployment is expected to rise next year to around 9.3%, up from an average of 8.4% in 2009 so far, and up from 6.1% in 2008, and there is also increasing pressure on disposable incomes.
While the Canadian dollar has lost some ground against the strong euro – the European currency has appreciated from C$1.47 in 2007 to C$1.56 in 2008 and C$1.60 this year – the continuing strength of the Canadian currency (against the US dollar as well as the euro) has helped to sustain demand for travel to long-haul destinations.
Europe is still very much top of mind for Canadians, although Asia is gaining share of the market, and most travel to the region is discretionary. Holidays account for 67% of total overseas trip volume, with an additional 18% for visits to friends and relations (VFR) and 21% 'other'. Business travel generates a mere 13% of trips. Moreover, 34% of Canadian overseas travel is made during the winter months.
South America
South America has been fortunate in that – so far – it has been weathering the global economic crisis relatively easily. The UNWTO's latest World Tourism Barometer shows it to be the only sub-region outside Africa where tourist arrivals have not fallen significantly so far this year. Given the damage inflicted on longhaul arrivals by the recession, it is clear that travel within the region has been thriving. However, while travel around the world has been showing signs of turning upwards in recent months, recent figures from South America have generally been turning down. It suggests that 29% of Brazilian travellers want to travel s much in 2010 as they did in 2009, that 28% want to travel less, and 18% would rather not travel. Time will tell whether these patchy figures reflect a real slackening in demand for travel. International attention, when considering this resilience, has been very much focused on Brazil. However, although Brazil dominates South America in terms of population and the size of its economy, it does not do so as an outbound travel market.
Brazil generates only two outbound trips per year per 100 inhabitants, while Argentina generates 12 and Uruguay as many as 21. While Brazilians, as a nation, are not yet as affluent as the Chileans, Argentines and Uruguayans, this is not the principal reason for the differences shown in the following graph. Brazil is a vast country that very much looks to itself for its holiday and business travel requirements. In particular, its multi-ethnic inhabitants have no need to look beyond its own shorelines for family sun & beach holidays. By contrast, many Argentines are used to nipping across the borders to Uruguay or Brazil for their family holidays: in 2008 sun & beach holidays accounted for 54% of outbound holiday trips from Argentina, but only 11% from Brazil. The Uruguayans, living in a much smaller country, have greater need to look abroad for variety in their holidays. More generally, most South Americans wealthy enough to travel are much more likely to look abroad than the Brazilians. This tendency is reflected in the preoccupations of the travel trade in Brazil, which regards its thriving domestic market as much more important than its outbound market.
Geographical location is an important consideration for South Americans in choosing destinations. Colombia is much closer to North and Central America than the others, and this is reflected in the larger numbers of trips to those regions. Chile is culturally and economically somewhat isolated from its neighbours by the Andes and it is this, as much as its affluence (with a GDP per capita of US$15,000, it is the wealthiest country in South America), which explains a rather higher proportion of long-haul trips. Paraguay, with a GDP per capita of only US$4,000, nevertheless generates more trips per 100 inhabitants than Chile, but most of these trips are local.
The Brazilians may not be quite as affluent as the Chileans, Argentines and Uruguayans, but they spend more per trip. This may principally be a result of the fact that, with the country's very low outbound travel intensity, those who do travel abroad tend to come from the richest segments of society. Trips abroad are also more likely to be 'important' and to long-haul destinations.
There are some another trends also affect tourism
Social Trends ● Population and Ageing ● Urbanisation ● Changing Social Structures ● Health ● Aspirations and Expectations ● Values and Lifestyles ● Changing Work Patterns ● Gender ● Education
Social Influences on Tourism:
Social Influences on Tourism Money rich-time poor. Leisure time has become an increasingly scarce commodity Individualism. Tourist behaviour is becoming driven by a desire for customisation (Pampering/hedonism) Self improvement. As more material needs are satisfied tourists seek newer, richer, deeper, authentic experiences seeking value for money. The internet has lead to more knowledgeable consumers who seek best value for money and time
Social Influences on Tourism:
Social Influences on Tourism Experimental. New tourists are extremely experimental, willing to try new products, foods and attractions, but too impatient to give a second chance to products or service that fail to satisfy initially Safety conscious. Safety issues are becoming increasingly important Social and Environmental Concern. Tourists are becoming more aware of political, social and environmental issues for different destinations (tipping points) Good service. the tourist marketing battle is shifting from competitive pricing to service improvement
Technological Change:
Technological Change Two areas of change: IT and Transport Technology is the foremost management tool for successful performance and competitive advantage in the new business operating environment
Technological Influences:
Technological Influences database management systems allow response to individual preferences to stimulate tourism New technologies give tourists more control over how they spend their time and money New technology is improving the speed and comfort and reducing the real cost of travel all aspects of tourism and hospitality organizations in all sectors are being dramatically changed by new technology BUT - - the tourism industry generally has not taken an active role in developing or adapting new technology Despite the proliferation of new technology, the industry is often reluctant to adopt new methods and tools
MEGA-TRENDS OF TOURISM
IN ASIA-PACIFIC
June 2006
Asia continues to be the world economic powerhouse. According to the United Nations, by 2020, four of the largest ten economies will be in Asia (China, India, Japan and the Republic of Korea). Asia will also account for 12 of the 22 megacities (urban centres with more than 10 million people) by the same year.
Asia-Pacific region trends are:
1. Travel has become more activity-interest based rather than destination- based
2. China and India continue to be the two main drivers of tourism industry and tourists generating countries/regions
3. The development of low-cost carriers (LCCs) makes intra- and inter-regional travel more affordable and will change people’s travel habits and patterns
4. Airlines are likely to become a low-cost industry.
5. Travel agents transform themselves into travel consultants
6. Polarization of tastes and travel spending
7. Continued growth of online transactions
8. Consolidation of social-environmental awareness and consciousness
9. Competition and cooperation among destinations for inbound tourists
10. Emphasis on travel experiences and customized tours
11. Rapid growth of business travel
12. Asia is becoming a convention hub
13. Increasing growth of seniors and women travellers boost the demand for cultural and wellness tourism
14. Travel safety and health become major concerns
15. Emphasis on timely communication of accurate information to mitigate negative impacts on destinations
According to Abacus, a Global Distribution System, “travel has become more activity
interest-based rather than destination-based”. This transformation calls for destinations to develop unique activities. In terms of activities offered, South-east Asia continues to feature cultural/heritage tourism and adventure tourism (Indochina), marine tourism (Malaysia and Philippines), and integrated resorts (Singapore); North-east Asia continues to excel in cultural/heritage tourism, with Hong Kong and Macau both tapping into this niche market. With an aging population in the region the promotion and preservation of culture is likely to be one of the main tourism development focuses of the tourism destinations.
Booming economies in the region fuel intra-regional, outbound and inbound tourism traffics. India and China have led the tourism growth and will continue to be the leading tourist-generating countries in the future. An economic boom has also boosted the business travel market. Again, China and India are likely to experience the fastest growth in this segment. Business travel in the future will become more interactive and technology-oriented. Business travellers are likely to demand more interaction with the host communities and for hassle-free Internet connections as the line between leisure and business becomes thinner.
Low-cost carriers continue to exert strong pressure on full-service carriers. This will encourage online bookings and indirectly force travel agents to become travel consultants or advisors. The fierce competition in the aviation industry has driven down airfares, making air travel more affordable and frequent. Experts predict that the sector will soon become a low-cost industry. LCCs will also change peoples’ travel pattern. Lower airfares are likely to encourage travelers to shift from annual long-haul holidays to multiple short-haul short breaks, and hence further boosting the intra-regional travel demand.
Mega-trends of Tourism in Asia-Pacific
Globalization and Long term Economic Trends:
Globalization and Long term Economic Trends Six factors that drive globalization, economic dynamism and growth political pressures for higher living standards improved macroeconomic policies deregulation/liberalisation of international trade rising trade and investment diffusion of information technology increasingly dynamic private sectors
Growing World Economy:
Growing World Economy rising income is the most powerful generator of tourism flows continued growth of national economies will generate increased outbound tourism and, to a lesser extent, domestic tourism Economic growth and greater spending power, and with greater available leisure time, will give greater numbers of people the opportunity to travel
Political Trends:
Political Trends the gap between the “haves” and “have-nots” will widen unless the “have-not” countries pursue policies that support application of new technologies good governance universal education market reforms
Some Political Influences:
Some Political Influences Destinations that are perceived to be less safe and secure will be avoided by tourists Enclave tourism strategies need to be re-examined (risk management) Globalisation Vs Localisation Modernity Vs Identity
Environment, Resources, Energy Trends:
Environment, Resources, Energy Trends climate change higher temperatures ozone depletion sea level rise loss of snow cover and permafrost glacial melt in the polar regions extreme weather events, precipitation and hydrological changes natural resource depletion (energy, water) land-use changes (deforestation and desertification, salinity) changes in biodiversity (species loss). These are affecting tourism
Some Environmental Influences on Tourism:
Some Environmental Influences on Tourism both contributes to and is affected by climate change natural environments and climate will influence which destinations will be preferred by tourists climate change impacts on the profitability of the industry through increasing temperatures, energy and water use and increasing needs for adaptation Government policies will affect operator costs Long haul destinations particularly affected Diminishing supplies of energy will impact on fuel costs, affecting transport costs and tourism flows
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